Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
